Our Recommendation: Vote for One of the Top-Polling Democrats for Governor

Keep maga out of the California Governor’s Mansion

Updated May 9

You should have received a ballot for the June 2 Primary Election by now. If you haven’t, contact the SLO County Elections Office to make sure you get it.

The race for governor is taking shape, and it looks like a Democrat is in good position to make it into one of the top-two slots in this so-called “jungle primary.”

Here’s the California Democratic Party’s latest tracking poll update of 1,200 likely California voters for the three top Democrats, conducted April 30 – May 2, published May 4. The top Democrats: 

• Xavier Becerra, 18% (up from 16% on April17)

• Tom Steyer, 12% (down from 13% on April 17)

• Katie Porter, 8% (down from 10% on April 17) 

Both maga candidates remain in the hunt at 18% and 14% respectively.

While the numbers will continue to move from now until June 2, the SLOCDP’s recommendation remains the same, with a twist: 

• Narrow your choice to one of the top-polling Dem candidates who aligns with your values on or before the June 2 primary election to avoid a maga sweep of the top two positions.

• We suggest waiting a bit before submitting your ballot to see if the numbers at the top of the pack change in the next week or so.

• Don’t wait too long because the SLO County Elections staff is small and we don’t want to jam them up right at the end, delaying results. 

One thing that won’t change: Democrats hold about a 2-1 voter registration edge over Republicans in California. So, if most Democrats vote for one of the top-polling Dem candidates, chances are good we’ll place at least one Dem into the top two in the June 2 primary election. And then on to victory in November.

Those Polls

Different polls say different things. As we’ve said before, be skeptical of polls funded by PACs and individual campaigns; pay attention to the date a poll was conducted; and try to avoid using “polling averages” as an indicator of the state of the race.

In our view, these four polling outfits have proven to be credible: 

• CADEM’s Tracking Polls

• PPIC (Public Policy Institute of California)

• Berkeley IGS (Cal Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies)

• Emerson College 

Here are polling aggregator sites we track. Each includes the polls mentioned above:
 
New York Times Poll Tracker
270 to Win
Real Clear Polling
 
Thanks for all you do.
 
SLOCDP