State of the Governor’s Race: The Polling has Changed, but the Recommendation Remains the Same
Vote for One of the Top-Polling Democrats for California Governor
Dear SLO County Democrats,
The race for governor has taken a dramatic turn in the 10 days since Eric Swalwell exited from the race for California governor.
Here’s the California Democratic Party’s latest tracking poll update, published Monday, April 20. The current top three Democrats are:
Xavier Becerra, 13% (up from 4% on April 5)
Tom Steyer, 13% (up from 11% on April 5)
Katie Porter, 10% (up from 7% on April 5)
Both maga candidates remain in the top two positions at 16% and 14% respectively. The closest bottom-tier Dem candidate came in at 5%. The CADEM poll was conducted April 15-17 of 1,200 likely voters with a margin of error rate of plus/minus 2.8%
As you may have heard by now, Betty Yee, tracking at 1%, has dropped out of the race, diminishing even further the chances of two magas wedging out a Democrat for the two top slots.
On behalf of the SLOCDP, I’d like to thank Ms. Lee for doing the right thing for our party and our state, and for being a longtime friend of the SLOCDP. We call on other candidates in similar positions to do the same.
While the numbers will continue to move from now until mail ballots start going out the first week of May, the SLOCDP’s recommendation remains the same: narrow your choices to one of the two or three top-polling Dem candidates on or before the June 2 primary election.
Given the approximately 2-1 voter registration edge Democrats hold over Republicans in California, chances are high we’ll elect a Dem governor – so long as we get one candidate – or even two – in the top two on June 2.
We’ll stay on top of the polling and keep you informed.
About those Polls
It's important to understand that polls are merely a snapshot on any given day, and do not always reflect the reality on the ground. In my view, these polling outfits have proven to be credible:
CADEM’s Tracking Polls
PPIC (Public Policy Institute of California)
Berkeley IGS (Cal Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies)
Emerson College
Survey USA is sponsored by the San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV-TV in San Diego, so those media outlets have staked their own credibility on that firm. I don't know much about this outfit, but I do trust those media outlets.
Beware of "polling averages," which can be deliberately skewed by polls sponsored by candidates or PACs to make their preferred candidates seem more popular than they may be. The CADEM polling has no reason to do that, by the way.
To accurately track the state of the governor's race, I stick to a few credible polls until the race starts to tighten closer to when mail ballots start going on out May 4. Here are polling sites I track:
If you have your own favorite, great. I find these the easiest to decipher.
In solidarity,
Tom Fulks
Chair, SLOCDP